The current issue of The New Yorker, the one with Trump (the "great weight") being whisked away on the wings of the exasperated American eagle, notices something completely different in the sky: "Oumuamua," that mysterious 2017 dot of light Harvard astrophysicist Avi (no, auto-correct, not "Aviation") Loeb called "plausibly of extraterrestrial-technology origin."
Swinging on a Star
...It’s often said that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” The phrase was popularized by the astronomer Carl Sagan, who probably did as much as any scientist has done to promote the search for extraterrestrial life. By what’s sometimes referred to as the “Sagan standard,” Loeb’s claim clearly falls short; the best evidence he marshals for his theory that ‘Oumuamua is an alien craft is that the alternative theories are unconvincing. Loeb, though, explicitly rejects the Sagan standard—“It is not obvious to me why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” he observes—and flips its logic on its head: “Extraordinary conservatism keeps us extraordinarily ignorant.” So long as there’s a chance that 1I/2017 U1 is an alien probe, we’d be fools not to pursue the idea. “If we acknowledge that ‘Oumuamua is plausibly of extraterrestrial-technology origin,” he writes, “whole new vistas of exploration for evidence and discovery open before us.”
In publishing his theory, Loeb has certainly risked (and suffered) ridicule. It seems a good deal more likely that “Extraterrestrial” will be ranked with von Däniken’s work than with Galileo’s. Still, as Serling notes toward the end of “In Search of Ancient Astronauts,” it’s thrilling to imagine the possibilities: “Look up into the sky some clear, starlit night and allow yourself the freedom to wonder.” Elizabeth Kolbert
In resisting the “Sagan standard" for extraordinary claims, he makes a Jamesian "will to believe" sort of point. Is there really a chance he's right? It certainly is "thrilling to imagine the possibilities"...
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